Pengaruh Perjanjian Perdagangan Regional Terhadap Volatilitas Pasar Keuangan di Negara Berkembang: Studi Empiris Asia Tenggara
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47065/arbitrase.v6i1.2540Keywords:
ASEAN; RCEP; Stock Market Volatility; Exchange Rate; Capital Flows; Financial Stability; Developing Countries; Southeast AsiaAbstract
Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) such as ASEAN and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have become major drivers of economic integration in the Southeast Asian region. For developing countries, participation in RTAs has complex implications for financial market stability, particularly through its effects on stock market volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, and cross-border capital flows. This study aims to systematically examine how ASEAN countries’ involvement in RTAs affects domestic financial market dynamics, focusing on medium-term volatility and stability components. The method used is the Systematic Literature Review (SLR) by examining published scientific literature from various national and international databases. The review results show that the impact of RTAs on stock markets and currencies tends to vary depending on macroeconomic conditions, institutional capacity, and capital flow management policies in each country. Several studies conclude that RCEP can increase market confidence and strengthen financial integration, while other studies reveal the potential for increased volatility due to financial liberalization that has not been balanced by the strengthening of domestic supervisory systems. These findings emphasize the importance of designing responsive economic policies to maximize the benefits of RTAs while maintaining national financial stability.
Downloads
References
Adeline Vinda Septani, Farit Mochamad Afendi, Anang Kurnia. (2025). Perbandingan Metode GARCH, LSTM, GRU, dan CNN pada Peramalan Volatilitas Kurs. Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications. Vol. 22, No. 1, , 149-169. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12962/limits.v22i1.3384
Aman, Z., Mallick, S., & Nemlioglu, I. (2021). Currency regimes and external competitiveness: The role of institutions, trade agreements and monetary frameworks. Journal of Institutional Economics, 399–428. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137421000503
Arapova, E. Y. (2019). The “BRICS plus” as the first international platform connecting regional trade agreements. Asia-Pacific Social Science Review, 19(2), 30–46. https://doi.org/10.59588/2350-8329.1220
Aulia, R. D., Putri, R., & Arianthony, S. (2025). Konsep Dasar Ekonomi Internasional dan Teori Perdagangan Internasional. Jurnal Administrasi Publik, 2(10), 116–122. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15387779
Aurel, P. (2024). Pengaruh Volatilitas Nilai Tukar terhadap Ekspor Indonesia ke 5 Negara ASEAN. Parahyangan Economic Development Review, 2(1), 47–58. https://doi.org/10.26593/pedr.v2i1.7412
Cao, L., Jiang, J., & Piljak, V. (2023). Did mega-regional trade agreements reshuffle the financial influence of the US, China, and Japan in ASEAN? Evidence from the volatility-spillover effects. Research in International Business and Finance, 65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101937
Carballo, J., Handley, K., & Limão, N. (2025). The Role of International Trade Agreements During Economic and Policy Crises: Evidence From U.S. Firm Dynamics. Review of International Economics, 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.70005
Daelemans, B., Daniels, J. P., & Nourzad, F. (2018). Free Trade Agreements and Volatility of Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from NAFTA. Open Economies Review, 29(1), 141–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-017-9472-x
Danila, N. (2023). Spillover of volatility among financial instruments: ASEAN-5 and GCC market study. PLoS ONE, 18(10 October), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0292958
Ederington, J., & Minier, J. (2022). Pr ep rin t n ot er r ev Pr ep rin t n ot ed.
Ha, L. T. T., Wong, W.-K., & Hariyadi, E. (2024). An examining factors influencing internasional export and import relationships in context of Vietnam’s free trade agreements. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 25(1), 36–46. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v25i1.22152
Nduka, A. J., Manasseh, C., Chin, L., & okanya, ogochukwu. (2025). the Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Impact on Export in the Selected Countries. SSRN Electronic Journal, 118–149. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5235183
Nia, W., Ma’mun, S. Z., & Maksar, M. S. (2024). Analisis Integrasi Dinamis Pasar Modal Indonesia terhadap Pasar Modal ASEAN Pasca Berlakunya Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN. J-MAS (Jurnal Manajemen Dan Sains), 9(1), 556. https://doi.org/10.33087/jmas.v9i1.1704
Nia Wati, & Ayu Puspitaningtyas. (2023). Pengaruh Volume Perdagangan Saham, Tingkat Inflasi dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham Sub Sektor Batu Bara yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Krisnadwipayana, 11(2), 881–890. https://doi.org/10.35137/jmbk.v11i2.80
Nitin, B. A. (2024). IMPACT OF BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS ON INDIA ’ S ECONOMIC GROWTH?: A PRE-POST ANALYSIS. April.
Nugroho, A. D., Ma’ruf, M. I., Nasir, M. A., Fekete-Farkas, M., & Lakner, Z. (2024). Impact of global trade agreements on agricultural producer prices in Asian countries. Heliyon, 10(2), e24635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24635
Panjaitan, Y., & Saadah, S. (2018). Volatility spillover analysis post implementation of AEC 2015 agreement: Empirical study on ASEAN-5 stock market. International Journal of Financial Research, 9(2), 105–111. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v9n2p105
Pham, H., Mudalige, P., Le, H., Bui, M., Nguyen, V., Ramiah, V., Chu, T., & Vu, T. H. (2024). The effects of free trade agreements on the stock market: Evidence from Vietnam. PLoS ONE, 19(2 February), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0294456
Putri, I. T., Dafa, M., & Efendi, B. (2023). The Strategic Role of Port Infrastructure and International Trade Agreements in Strengthening Indonesia ’ s Export Competitiveness. 2(2).
Rahmadini, S., & Idris. (2024). Analisis Volatilitas Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan: Dampak Indeks Saham ASEAN dan Faktor Makroekonomi Indonesia. Media Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4, 630–641. https://medrep.ppj.unp.ac.id/index.php/MedREP/login
Ramli, N., Azam, A. H. M., Nor, A. H. S. M., & Sarmidi, T. (2022). Spillover of rubber prices volatility in ASEAN-3 countries. Journal of Rubber Research, 25(4), 251–263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42464-022-00181-4
Rojid, T., & Rojid, S. (2024). Impact of exchange rate volatility on export of small economies. International Trade, Politics and Development, 8(3), 165–187. https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-08-2023-0023
Sunoto, F., & Dewi, A. S.,. (2020). Analisis Spillover Volatilitas Pasar Saham U.S Dan China (Periode 2016-2018) Spillover Volatility Analysis Between China And United States Of America Stock Markets In 2016-2018 Period. 7(1), 125–132.
Wijaya, A. D., Aulia, D., Dzakirah, N. Q., Septaria, E., & Adepio, M. I. (2025). Implementasi RCEP ( Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ) Terhadap Indonesia Menurut Hukum Internasional. Judge: Jurnal Hukum, 06(02), 100–108.
Yue, W., Lin, Q., & Xu, S. (2023). Investment effect of regional trade agreements: an analysis from the perspective of heterogeneous agreement provisions. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01792-x
Bila bermanfaat silahkan share artikel ini
Berikan Komentar Anda terhadap artikel Pengaruh Perjanjian Perdagangan Regional Terhadap Volatilitas Pasar Keuangan di Negara Berkembang: Studi Empiris Asia Tenggara
ARTICLE HISTORY
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2025 Amelia Kusniawati, Adistie Prestiani Putri, Slamet Riyadi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (Refer to The Effect of Open Access).
